Could Munetaka Murakami become the next Kyle Schwarber? That's the million-dollar question swirling around the Japanese slugger as his posting window deadline looms. But will he take a short-term deal to prove it? If he does, could teams later regret not locking him down long-term? Let's dive in!
We're just days away from Murakami's posting window closing at 5 p.m. ET on Monday. The stakes are high, with potential contracts ranging from a multi-year commitment to a shorter stint to prove his worth.
Initially, many experts, like The Athletic's Tim Britton, projected Murakami to land a hefty eight-year deal worth $158.5 million. Other sources echoed similar predictions. At just 25 years old, and with scouts raving about his power, Murakami seems like a sure bet.
But here's where it gets controversial... There's also a chance Murakami might not receive those massive long-term offers. Some scouts, while admiring his power, have reservations about his defense, contact rates, and ability to adapt against top-tier pitchers. This opens the door to a short-term deal, which could be a strategic move.
Imagine this scenario: Murakami signs a two-year deal, showcases his 40-home run power, plays decent defense at third or first base, leverages his English-speaking skills, and re-enters the free-agent market at 28. He could then be in line for a contract worth hundreds of millions of dollars!
Of course, this is just one possible outcome. The posting fee associated with Murakami complicates the situation. A team might be hesitant to add an extra cost to a short-term deal for a young player. More money equals more risk.
From the clubs' perspective, a long-term deal might be an even bigger gamble. Teams generally have more experience developing and predicting the performance of Japanese pitchers than position players. Murakami doesn't perfectly fit the models teams use to make free agency decisions.
Schwarber's situation offers a compelling parallel. After the 2020 season, the Chicago Cubs non-tendered Schwarber. He then turned a one-year deal with the Washington Nationals (and a subsequent trade to the Boston Red Sox) into a four-year, $79 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies in March 2022. Any team that worried about Schwarber's defensive limitations and strikeouts is likely regretting that decision now. Since 2022, he's averaged 46.8 home runs and a .856 OPS per season.
While Murakami-to-Schwarber isn't a perfect comparison, the concept of Murakami following a similar path resonates with some evaluators.
"I absolutely think it is and makes a lot of sense because of the tools, physical attributes they both have — with defense dings (and) high K rates," said one National League executive who scouted Murakami in person. "The tricky part I would add is that a guy like Schwarber was renowned since he was in college for his makeup and work ethic.
"I don’t think anyone can say Murakami’s makeup isn’t good, but just the difficulty of getting to know the players in-depth, as well as the culture change, makes it a lot riskier.”
Murakami, who is currently training in California, boasts impressive exit velocity and bat speed, which are major assets. His average exit velocity last season in Nippon Professional Baseball was 96.5 mph, while Schwarber's MLB average was 94.3 mph.
Interestingly, some of Murakami's other NPB stats, like his chase rate (24 percent), walk rate (14 percent), and strikeout rate (29 percent), are comparable to Schwarber's MLB numbers (21.5 percent chase rate, 15 percent walk rate, 27 percent strikeout rate). However, it's crucial to remember the different levels of competition.
The concern lies in whether Murakami's numbers will decline against better pitching. However, the profile shares some similarities.
There are other players with similar profiles, such as Christopher Morel, who recently signed a one-year deal with the Miami Marlins, and Joey Gallo, who is now trying to transition to pitching.
The key for Murakami will be adjusting to major-league pitching.
In Japan, he struggled against pitches clocked at 95 mph or higher. In MLB, he'll face more of that heat. He'll also need to improve his contact on pitches in the strike zone. (His 23.4 percent zone whiff rate in Japan was better than Shohei Ohtani's 26.9 percent mark, and Ohtani was a few years younger.)
Murakami is young and talented – who knows what his ceiling might be? But this is what makes Monday's deadline so intriguing. Teams are still weighing the pros and cons of short-term versus long-term contracts. And Murakami himself might be pondering the same question.
What do you think? Will Murakami bet on himself with a short-term deal, or will he secure a long-term contract? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
